Last update: 3/2/04

P.I.s: George C. Tiao, Gregory C. Reinsel, Xiao-li Meng, Donald Wuebbles, Betsy Weatherhead

This research can be categorized by the following:

Analysis of Ground Station Total Ozone Data for Detection of Trend Turnaround and Recovery
Analysis of Satellite Total Ozone Data for Detection of Trend Turnaround and Recovery
Trend Analysis of Upper Stratospheric Ozone Data for Evidence of Turnaround
Statistical Diagnostic Analysis of Numerical Models

The project aims to develop and apply time series as well as hierarchical and spatial models to various statistical and scientific issues involved in detecting the recovery of stratospheric and total column ozone. Two specific problems to be examined are: Detection of a reversal in sign of a trend from negative to positive and detection of trends when the time series consists of data from several sensors operation in succession where interventions are required to account for calibration shifts. This work will help provide realistic assessments of the time required to detect the onset of an ozone recovery and the utility of various measurement systems for trend detection.